And violence against Syrian refugees is on the rise. One recent poll suggests that more than 70 per cent of Turkish people would vote for the party that promised the toughest action on refugees at the next election. With elections on the horizon, he is likely to ramp up such pressure in the face of growing public resentment. President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has been pushing for the return of the 3.7 million Syrian refugees hosted by Turkey (a higher number than there are in any other country). This pressure will come largely from political and economic factors in host countries, as well as wider dynamics in the Middle East, such as governments’ normalisation of their relationships with the Assad regime and the broader trend towards regional dialogue. Indeed, the situation in Syria does not allow for safe, voluntary, and dignified returns.ĭespite the evidence, there are worrying signs that, in the next year, the 5.5 million Syrian refugees in the Middle East and the 1 million in Europe will come under mounting pressure to return to Syria. This is why the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR) argues that, for most Syrians, a return home “remains a deep and longed-for aspiration”. These reports document at length that those refugees who return to Syria face torture, arrests, disappearance, mistreatment by the security forces and even forced conscription. The Refugee Protection Watch coalition and Amnesty International came up with similar findings. A comprehensive report published by Human Rights Watch in October 2021 documents the abuses and disappearances faced by those who returned from Lebanon and Jordan between 20. Human rights groups confirm that Syria is not safe to return to. Covid-19, sanctions, and regional economic instability have only worsened the plight of Syrians. And the threat from the Islamic State group still looms large. Water scarcity and pollution have caused widespread disarray.
The northeast faces an ongoing health crisis. The government has not rebuilt housing and infrastructure destroyed by the conflict. The security forces continue to use torture, and to carry out killings and arbitrary detentions, on a large scale. While the violence there has diminished, the country is increasingly fragmented and economically fragile – with 90 per cent of Syrians living in poverty, affected by unemployment and a deep currency crisis. Meanwhile, some European countries are considering ways to return refugees to Syria.Īll these shifts are taking place outside Syria. Up to nine Arab governments – including those in the United Arab Emirates, Jordan, and Egypt, as well as the Palestinian Authority – have either taken steps to normalise relations with Syria or have said they want it to rejoin the Arab League. All this contributes to a rising sense of desperation that could drive more Syrian refugees out of the Middle East. For these states, the difficulty of hosting an increasing number of refugees is compounded by worsening domestic problems: they face a growing threat from political instability, the pandemic, economic sanctions, and poor governance. Host countries such as Lebanon, Turkey, and Jordan are exhausted, their resources depleted. This year is set to be extremely challenging for Syrian refugees.
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